According to the latest Ericsson Mobility Report, global 5G subscriptions are projected to reach 5.6 billion by the end of 2029, with 5G population coverage outside mainland China doubling from 40 percent in 2023 to 80 percent in 2029. The report highlights a surge in 5G adoption, with 160 million new subscriptions in the first quarter of 2024, totaling 1.7 billion. Nearly 600 million new subscriptions are anticipated this year. By 2029, 5G is expected to account for 60% of all mobile subscriptions, becoming the dominant mobile access technology by 2028.
David von Koch, senior market analyst at Ericsson, attributes the upward revision to a positive outlook for Africa and the Middle East, driven by the availability of more low- and mid-spectrum and affordable 5G devices. Currently, about 300 CSPs globally offer 5G services, with approximately 50 launching 5G Standalone (5G SA).
The first quarter of 2024 saw a significant increase in mobile network data traffic, growing 25% year-on-year, primarily due to subscriber migration to later generations and data-intensive services like video. Mobile data traffic is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% through 2029. By the end of 2023, a quarter of all mobile network data was handled by 5G, with a forecast to grow to 75% by 2029.
Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Networks at Ericsson, noted the strong uptake of 5G subscriptions, emphasizing the importance of Enhanced Mobile Broadband and Fixed Wireless Access as leading use cases. The report also underscores the need for increased deployment of 5G Standalone technology to fully realize 5G's potential.
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) has seen a sharp increase, becoming the second leading 5G use case after enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB). Mid-band 5G population coverage outside mainland China has reached 35%, with North America and India leading at 85% and 90% coverage, respectively.
User experience data reveals that 97% of all user activities on 5G mid-band achieved a time-to-content of less than 1.5 seconds, compared to 67% on 5G low-band and 38% on 4G.
In Southeast Asia and Oceania, 5G subscriptions are predicted to reach around 560 million by 2029. The region saw 61 million 5G subscriptions at the end of 2023, driven by affordable devices and promotional plans. Markets like Singapore, Australia, Thailand, and Malaysia have already seen over 20% of their subscriber base migrate to 5G.
Daniel Ode, Head of Ericsson Singapore, Philippines, and Brunei, highlights the focus on innovations in speed, coverage, and differentiated services in advanced 5G markets like Australia and Singapore. High-performing programmable networks utilizing 5G SA architecture offer new opportunities for service innovation and performance-based business models.
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